Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes edged up two points from a downwardly revised number to 21 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December. This marks a third consecutive month in which builder confidence has improved, and brings the index to its highest point since May of 2010.

“While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “However, the difficulties that both builders and buyers continue to experience in accessing credit for new homes are holding back potential sales even in areas where economic conditions are improving.”

“This is the first time that builder confidence has improved for three consecutive months since mid-2009, which signifies a legitimate though slowly emerging upward trend,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “While large inventories of foreclosed properties continue to plague the most distressed markets and consumer worries about job security and the challenges of selling an existing home remain significant factors, builders are reporting more inquiries and more interest among potential buyers than they have seen in previous months.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes registered a third consecutive month of improvement in December. The component gauging current sales conditions rose two points in the latest month to 22, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months edged up one point to 26. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points to 18, which is its highest level since May of 2008.

Builder confidence primarily gained strength in the South in December, where a four-point gain to 25 brought that region’s HMI score to its highest level since March of 2008. A one-point gain to 16 was registered in the West, while the Midwest held unchanged at 24 and the Northeast slipped one point to 15.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org

  The national delinquency rate for residential home loans fell to 7.99 percent in the third quarter—the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2008. This represents a decline of 45 basis points from the second quarter of this year, and a drop of 114 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that the 30-day delinquency rate reached its lowest level since the second quarter of 2007 at 3.19 percent.

Cumulative default rates among U.S. residential mortgage loans continued to level off in third-quarter 2011, furthering improvements that began at the start of the year. Loans that were originated during the height of the housing boom in 2006 and 2007 still have the highest default rates, but performance within these two vintages has improved in recent months.

“We believe moderating first default and redefault rates are propelling this reduction, and this reduction is likely the primary factor causing cumulative defaults to flatten. Performance among loans originated in 2007 has improved more than that of loans from 2006 recently, both in terms of cumulative and active defaults,” said Diane Westerback, managing director for structured finance at Standard & Poor’s. However, it’s still too soon to accurately assess whether these trends will continue, she said.

According to Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s VP of research and economics, though delinquencies are down, foreclosure starts are now rising quarter over quarter.

“While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the third quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet and that the issues continue to vary by geography. A closer look shows that there are different trends driving these results. The increase in the foreclosure starts rate this quarter was driven by large increases from just a few servicers, concentrated in certain ‘hardest hit’ states. For most servicers, the foreclosure starts rate was little changed over the quarter. In these ‘hardest hit’ states, the few large changes reflects the progression of delinquent loans through the foreclosure process. Outside of these states, improvement has continued, although at a slow pace due to the still-weak job market,” said Fratantoni.

The nation’s foreclosure inventory rate, which includes all loans in foreclosure, was 4.43 percent at the end of the third quarter.

That’s the same reading reported for the second quarter, and represents a 4 basis point increase from a year earlier.

“While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the third quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet,” said Fratantoni.

Existing-home sales were down in September on the heels of a strong gain in August, but remain well above a year ago, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 3.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million in September from an upwardly revised 5.06 million in August, but are 11.3 percent above the 4.41 million unit pace in September 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the market has been stable although at low levels, and there is plenty of room for improvement.

“Existing-home sales have bounced around this year, staying relatively close to the current level in most months,” he says. “The irony is affordability conditions have improved to historic highs and more creditworthy borrowers are trying to purchase homes, but the share of contract failures is double the level of September 2010. Even so, the volume of successful buyers is higher than a year ago and is remaining fairly stable—this speaks to an unfulfilled demand.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.11 percent in September, down from 4.27 percent in August; the rate was 4.35 percent in September 2010.

Contract failures were reported by 18 percent of NAR members in September, unchanged from August; they were 9 percent in September 2010. Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including home inspections and employment losses.

NAR President Ron Phipps says access to credit is unbalanced. “All year we’ve been discussing the fact that many creditworthy home buyers are being denied mortgages,” he says. “On top of that, loan limits have been lowered, which means buyers of higher priced homes, including many in more expensive housing markets, now have to pay a higher interest rate for a jumbo mortgage than buyers who can qualify for a conventional loan. We need to remove the roadblocks to a housing recovery—not place more obstacles in the way of financially qualified buyers.”

All-cash sales accounted for 30 percent of purchase activity in September, up from 29 percent in August and 29 percent also in September 2010; investors make up the bulk of cash purchases.

Investors purchased 19 percent of homes in September, down from 22 percent in August; they were 18 percent in September 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of transactions in September, unchanged from August; they were also 32 percent in September 2010.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $165,400 in September, down 3.5 percent from September 2010. Distressed homes—foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts—accounted for 30 percent of sales in September (18 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), down from 31 percent in August and 35 percent in September 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of September declined 2.0 percent to 3.48 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with an 8.4-month supply in August.

Single-family home sales fell 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million in September from 4.49 million in August, but are 12.2 percent above the 3.86 million-unit level in September 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $165,600 in September, down 3.9 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.8 percent a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 in September from 570,000 in August, and are 5.6 percent above the 549,000-unit pace one year ago. The median existing condo price was $163,800 in September, which is 1.0 percent below September 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 2.6 percent to an annual level of 790,000 in September and are 6.8 percent above a year ago.

The median price in the Northeast was $229,400, down 3.3 percent from September 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest slipped 0.9 percent in September to a pace of 1.09 million but are 17.2 percent higher than September 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $137,400, which is 1.4 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales declined 2.6 percent to an annual level of 1.89 million in September but are 10.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $144,400, down 3.0 percent from September 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 8.8 percent to an annual pace of 1.14 million in September but are 10.7 percent higher than September 2010. The median price in the West was $207,400, which is 4.5 percent below a year ago.

“The falloff in Western sales from a surge in August was expected because many lenders had lowered mortgage loan limits over concerns that sales wouldn’t close before the higher loan limits expired at the end of the September,” Yun says. “Given the concentration of higher cost housing in the West, particularly in California, many buyers were motivated to close in the months leading up to the changeover while they could still get low interest rates on conventional mortgages. Unless Congress reinstates the higher limits, the overall housing market recovery will be slower than it otherwise could be, and will hold back the broader economic recovery.”

Information and comment by RISMedia

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose four points to 18 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for October, which was released recently. This is the largest one-month gain the index has seen since the home buyer tax credit program helped spur the market in April of 2010.

“Builder confidence regained some ground in October due to modest improvements in buyer interest in select markets where economic recovery is starting to take hold and where foreclosure activity has remained comparatively subdued,” says NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. “That said, confidence remains quite low as builders continue to confront overly restrictive lending policies that are discouraging prospective buyers, problems with new-home appraisals and widespread uncertainty regarding federal support for homeownership.”

“This latest boost in builder confidence is a good sign that some pockets of recovery are starting to emerge across the country as extremely favorable interest rates and prices catch consumers’ attention,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, it’s worth noting that while some builders have shifted their assessment of market conditions from ‘poor’ to ‘fair,’ relatively few have shifted their assessments from ‘fair’ to ‘good.’ One reason is that builders are facing downward pricing pressures from foreclosed homes at the same time that building materials costs are rising, and this is further squeezing already tight margins.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the HMI’s three component indexes recorded substantial gains in October. The component gauging current sales conditions rose four points to 18, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose seven points to 24, and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 14.

Regionally, the West led all other areas of the country with its nine-point gain to 21 – the highest HMI score for that region since August of 2007. The Midwest and South each recorded four-point gains, to 15 and 19, respectively, while the Northeast held unchanged at 15.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org

Information provided by RIS Media RE Information and NAHB

Fannie and Freddie to Increase Fees…
But What Does It Mean?
Starting in 2012, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to increase their fees, which could impact homebuyers depending on the risk of their loan or the location of their home.
Here’s what you need to know – including what’s really happening and what it means to homebuyers.
What fee is being increased?
First, it’s important to remember that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do not actually make home loans. Instead, they provide financing to lenders by purchasing mortgages from those lenders. Then, Fannie and Freddie either keep those mortgages on their books or they package them (in the form of securities) for sale to investors.
That means, Fannie and Freddie don’t actually charge direct fees to homebuyers. But they do charge fees to lenders when they purchase home loans from those lenders. The lenders, in turn, build those fees into the home loans they offer. So the bottom line is that any increase in the fee that Fannie and Freddie charge lenders will essentially be passed on to consumers.
However, the fees likely won’t be increased the same amount across the board. For example, Fannie and Freddie may charge higher fees when purchasing riskier loans or they may vary the fees based on which part of the country the home is located in (taking into account things like the foreclosure rate of the location).
Why is this happening?
Fannie and Freddie were seized by the government three years ago to help protect them from failing. That’s important because Fannie and Freddie (along with other government agencies) actually guarantee about 9 out of every 10 new home loans—and with the challenges that the housing market has seen recently, those guarantees have been extremely important. However, Fannie and Freddie have also cost the taxpayers more than $140 Billion.
So Fannie and Freddie will gradually increase their guarantee fees next year and reduce the size of the home loans they purchase in an effort to:
1. Save taxpayers money and
2. Reduce the amount of government involvement (by attracting more private funding to the mortgage market)
What does this mean to homebuyers?
As stated above, the fees likely won’t be increased exactly the same across the board—so the impact will vary depending on the location of the home, risk of the loan, etc.
But we can look at one example to get an idea of the potential impact. For example, as the Wall Street Journal reported, if we calculate an increase of 0.1 percentage point (which is a number the White House proposed), we can see that a home loan for $220,000 would be increased by about $15 per month.
So the increase may not be very noticeable for many homebuyers. And, if people purchase a home while affordability is still high and home loan rates are still historically low, they’ll still benefit significantly compared to other times throughout history.
What should people do?
The fees are expected to begin increasing in 2012 and gradually rising thereafter. If someone you know is thinking about purchasing or refinancing, there’s still time to examine the options and make a move before the fee increase becomes much of an issue.

With Fall comes short days, wet weather, and cooler temperatures, so when we are looking at homes please keep in mind how much daylight we will have so you can make the best  when previewing homes.

 Processing delays have taken their toll on first-time home buyer interest in short sales, which now account for more than one of every six house sales, according to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey.

First-time home buyer purchases of short sales dropped to 39.7 percent of short sale transactions in August. That represented a three-month slide and was the lowest level for first-time home buyers ever recorded by the HousingPulse survey.

The first-time home buyer share of short sales hit a peak of 54.1 percent of all short sale transactions in November 2009, just before the originally-scheduled expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit.

Short sale transactions have long been problematic for buyers and sellers alike, with typical approval times of several months after a homebuyer first submits an offer. Factors slowing down short sale approvals include lost paperwork, coordination with multiple investors, slow appraisals, and mortgage servicer understaffing.

Still, for many first-time home buyers, average short sale prices of 27 percent lower than non-distressed properties compensated for the wait time. But with average time-on-market for short sales stalled at 16.6 weeks—with the majority of that time spent waiting for short sale approval—short sale transactions are becoming less popular with first-time home buyers.

Short sales are just one type of distressed property, with damaged REO and move-in ready REO also being significant components of today’s housing market. In August 2011, short sales accounted for 17.1 percent of the home purchase market, with damaged REO and move-in ready REO accounting for 13.2 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively.

The total proportion of distressed property, as represented by the HousingPulse Distressed Property Index (DPI), fell to 45.9 percent in August from 46.2 percent in June.

Real estate agents responding to the August survey indicated that home buyers frustrated with short sale delays are resorting to placing offers on multiple properties, with the intention on closing on only one. This practice can bog down the short sale approval process at mortgage servicers.

With foreclosures flooding the real estate market, many property buyers and investors are hitting the auction circuit looking to capitalize on the next great deal. For those that are new to the auction block, there are a few ‘rules of thumb’ you’ll want to keep in mind before placing your bid. PropertyAuction.com provides some essential tips when looking to get in on the auction action, including:

1) Exercise your due diligence. Arm yourself with as much information on the property of interest before you bid. Many auctioneers provide a Property Information Package that contains vital information about the property (demographics, environmental information, tax data, etc.) as well as the contract of sale. Some simple online research prior to the auction can also assist in finding out some need-to-know facts before you invest your time and money.

2) Fully understand what ‘As Is, Where Is’ condition entails. Pretty self-explanatory, you are agreeing to purchase a property with whatever flaws it has at the time of sale, in the location stated on the contract. Unless there is something specifically outlined within the contract, the “As Is, Where Is” item means that the seller is not responsible for any damages or repairs the property may need. This could be as minimal as a broken window with a location on a busy street, or as mammoth as environmental issues on a property located right next to a set of working train tracks. Know what you’re getting into before you get into it.

3) Be aware that most auctions do not come with financing. “Since the majority of real estate auction contracts have no financing contingencies, it is imperative for a prospective auction buyer to be sure of their ability to purchase the property in question,” advises Ori Klein, president of PropertyAuction.com. “Usually, there are no refunds on bid deposits due to lack of financing if you are the winning bidder. Decide on the highest price you are willing to pay for the property in question and tack on some extra for additional fees. Have your funds lined up and ready to go by the time you’re going to bid.”

4) If you can’t close, don’t bid. If for some reason you can’t close on time, you can lose your deposit and could be held liable for additional damages and daily penalties. Be aware that most real estate auction closings are within 30 days. In short, be prepared to buy or walk away.

5) Don’t bid with your emotions. Most people have a ”dream house” in mind, or are seeking to start a business in a swanky new office building. Whatever your expectations, come prepared with a price you can afford and don’t go over it. Remember, real estate auction sales are final.

6) Inspect the property. Just as in traditional sales, prospective buyers can usually have a chance to inspect real estate properties offered at auction. These inspections are usually arranged by appointment or at specific scheduled times designated by the auction company. This is an excellent opportunity to find out all the ‘As Is, Where Is’ details you need to know before bidding.

Bottom line: You can get deals at real estate auctions. As a buyer, you simply need to do your homework beforehand, be sure of what you can afford at the time of auction, and keep a cool head come bidding time. Many a first-time home buyer and business investor have walked away from an auction with a newfound goldmine.

RISMEDIA, June 29, 2011—A drop in some mortgage loan limits for the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration scheduled to occur on Oct. 1 will reduce housing demand and place downward pressure on home prices in major housing markets, according to a new study from the Economics and Housing Policy Group at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

When they come up for sale, the homes that will become ineligible to be purchased and securitized by the GSEs or to be purchased with FHA-insured financing as a result of the lower limits “would likely require financing with higher mortgage interest rates and other less favorable loan terms, such as higher required downpayments and more stringent credit history thresholds,” according to the report.

The downward pressure on prices could extend beyond the homes directly affected by the lower limits, the study warns, because first-time and trade-up home sales are interrelated.

The size of “conforming” mortgages for the GSEs is currently limited to $417,000 in general, but that ceiling can rise to as high as $729,750 using a statutory formula based on local median home prices.

Unless Congress acts to extend these levels, they will revert to the lower permanent criteria for high-cost areas under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.

The base limit will remain at $417,000, but the formula for establishing limits for high-cost areas will change from 125 percent to 115 percent of the area median home price, and the national ceiling will drop from $729,750 to $625,500.

Purchasing homes that go above the GSE ceiling will require non-conforming loans that currently have been about 60 basis points (0.6 percentage points) higher than conforming loans, the study finds, and based on a report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) the non-conforming mortgages are expected to be 50 to 75 basis points higher.

Looking at limits published by the FHFA, 204 counties—or 6.5 percent of the 3,143 counties in the U.S.—will see a decrease in their high-cost conforming loan limit. These counties represent relatively dense concentrations of population and housing and contain 20.7 million owner-occupied units out of the 75.3 million nationwide, or 27 percent.

In the counties facing a decline, the average decline in the loan limit will be $67,018, down 11 percent from current levels.

Under present law, 3.63 million owner-occupied homes are priced above the conforming loan limits. Under the changes set to take place on Oct. 1, an additional 1.38 million owner-occupied homes will be above the limit, leaving a total of 5 million homes that will not be eligible for GSE funding.

Lowering the limits will take an even bigger toll on homes eligible for FHA-insured financing, the study finds.

As with the GSEs, the national ceiling for FHA loans will drop to $625,500 on Oct. 1, and for counties whose housing is priced somewhere between that amount and the lowest ceiling of $271,050, the FHA mortgage loan limit will also decline from 125 percent to 115 percent of the area median.

According to the limits published by the FHA, 620 counties—or 20 percent of the total—will see a decrease in their FHA loan level. The affected counties contain 44.3 million owner-occupied housing units, or 59 percent of the owner-occupied housing stock in the U.S.

For counties facing a decline, the average drop in the FHA loan limit is $58,060, down 14 percent from current levels.

Under present law, 8.32 million owner-occupied homes are priced above the existing FHA loan limits. Under the changes set to take place on Oct. 1, an additional 3.87 million owner-occupied homes will surpass the limit, bringing the total number of homes ineligible for FHA-insured mortgages to 12.2 million.

RISMEDIA, June 24, 2011—The so-called “shadow inventory” of foreclosures—properties in the foreclosure pipeline but not yet listed on multiple listings services—slowly sank over the past year but still amount to five months’ worth of home sales.

The inventory fell from 1.9 million homes a year ago to 1.7 million in April, according to the latest report from CoreLogic, who attributed the decline to fewer new delinquencies over 90 days and a high level of distressed sales, which helped reduce the number of outstanding distressed loans.

The shadow inventory nationally peaked in January 2010 at 2 million units, 8.5 months’ supply, and stands 18 percent lower today than it was in April 2011. The total shadow and visible inventory was 5.7 million units in April 2011, down from 6.2 million units a year ago. The decline occurred in both the visible and shadow inventories.

Of the 1.7 million current shadow inventory supply, 790,000 units are seriously delinquent (2.6 months’ supply), 440,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.4 months’ supply) and 440,000 are already in REO (1.4 months’ supply).

In addition to the current shadow inventory, there are 2 million current negative equity mortgages that are “upside down” by more than 50 percent or $150,000. These current but underwater loans have increased the risk of entering the shadow inventory if the owners’ ability to pay is impaired while significantly underwater.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, commented, “The shadow inventory has declined by nearly one-fifth since it peaked in early 2010, in large part due to a reduced flow of newly delinquent loans in recent months. However, it will probably take several years for the shadow inventory to be absorbed given the long timelines in processing and completing foreclosures.”

Currently the shadow inventory accounts for 29 percent of the combined shadow and visible inventories.